Time for world leaders to get serious about climate change

By Keith Allott, Head of climate change at WWF-UK
They can either build on the progress achieved in Cancun last year and act to prevent runaway climate change, or they can allow short-term national interests to set us on a path towards a warming world, and all the dangers that come with it.  And if they are serious about tackling climate change on a global scale, then they have a lot of work to do in the next two weeks.
With 2010 registering record levels of greenhouse gas emissions, the world currently is on track for global temperature increases exceeding the dangerous threshold of 2ºC degrees, with catastrophic consequences. In line with the science, WWF will also be in Durban advocating a peak and decline of emissions by 2015, something that is critical if we are to have a chance of staying below 2C degrees of global warming.
In the weeks before these talks, even the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that world leaders have just five years to stop “the door closing” on keeping temperature increases below 2º C. Hammering home the point on why action is needed now, the agency added that unless steps were taken immediately to address this threat, the world risks locking itself into inefficient carbon-intensive energy infrastructure that will be costly or impossible to reverse.
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Sadly, the reality is that global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are currently way off track according to the latest report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) – one of the world’s leading authorities on environmental issues, which concluded that global emissions in 2020 need to be reduced to 44 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent – well below current levels – to give a “likely” chance of keeping warming below 2°C.
On a more positive note, in spite of this ‘reality check’ the UNEP report also made clear that there is still time to get on the right path, if we move quickly on a number of key areas including halting deforestation and adopting renewable energy.
One of the major points of discussion at these talks is whether nations will or won’t commit themselves to a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol – the world’s first and only agreement setting legally binding targets for some nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Kyoto’s first commitment period comes to an end in just 12 months time.

(c) Patricia Buckley/WWF-Canada
The EU backed by a large number of developing countries support a second Kyoto period. However, a handful of developed nations including Japan, Canada and Russia have said they won’t sign up. We can probably expect to see some strongly worded statements not to mention plenty of late night meetings on this particular issue.
Sadly, it’s unlikely that a comprehensive global deal to deal with climate change will be struck in Durban. But it is imperative that governments in Durban find a way forward allowing the foundation to be laid for negotiating a legally binding global agreement that includes all countries by 2015.
Finally, another crucial issue that needs solving is identifying the sources for long-term finance needed to cut emissions and to pay for urgently-needed adaptation to climate impacts. Developed countries have pledged to deliver funding of $100 billion per year by 2020, but Durban must make progress on explaining where this will come from – with a leading option being a mechanism to address international aviation and shipping. The risk is that Durban establishes a new green fund, but that this is not filled.

With all this in mind, the path our leaders choose to take over the next two weeks will be critical and they need to be reminded that they will be making these choices while on African soil – a continent particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
Climate change is truly a global threat that makes borders and politics irrelevant. It is a threat that needs a united response from the world’s governments. That response must start now here in Durban.